Oh so close. Just as we predicted Azerbaijan put up a real fight against Northern Ireland last night and were arguably the stronger team on the night, if it wasn’t for a last gasp winner they would have taken their share of the spoils. If you are like us and walk on the risk averse side of life, the result would be irrelevant and you’d have traded out for a laaaavley green book!
Northern Ireland could be backed at half time at around 3.5 and depending on your need for speed as it were, you could have got them at over 4.0 later in the game. Either way there were profit opportunities and Round the Outside love to GREEN UP and swim around in our profits like Scrooge McDuck.
So we move into the last day of a long weekend of international gridlock and WE GO AGAIN. A tough fixture list to find some underdog value with the European giants Italy and Spain looking unstoppable this campaign. However, what sort of self-proclaimed genius’ would we be if we couldn’t muster up a little magic.
Take a step into Narnia and see who is our Round the Outsider.. nice.
Serbia v Wales
I know what you’re thinking, “you guys are crazy” – we’ve heard it all before! But as you may be coming to learn, we love an outsider! Wales head to Serbia tonight with all indicators pointing against them, but a few devils in the details give Round the Outside enough hope to fancy an upset.
Lets give a quick overview of why Serbia are heavy favourites pricing at around 1.74. The Serbs sit top of group D on goal difference looking the most accomplished team in the group by a fair way and are hot favourites to qualify in top spot. They haven’t struggled to find the onion bag either home or away, scoring 12 goals already this campaign, five more than second place Republic of Ireland. Serbia also still hold bragging rights over the Welsh dragons, boasting 6-1 and 3-0 victories in the past, which is sure to give Muslin and his merry men confidence tonight.
Wales on the other hand find themselves on a post-night-out come-down after the miracles of their European Championships campaign. Having only won one game in group D, a home fixture against Moldova who sit bottom of the table, Wales have had very little to sing about. On top of all this, talisman and top goalscorer Gareth Bale finds himself sidelined through injury and unable to provide heroism in Belgrade this fine summers evening. His absence is sure to be behind the crushing 6.2 odds for Wales to win as Mr Bale has scored 50% of Wales’ goals this qualifying crusade.
So what hope is there!? Well…
Despite their group dominance, Serbia have been as leaky as the Tories with majority, conceding more than both Northern Ireland and third place Wales. By boasting such fire-power, Serbia have been able to mask their defensive frailties, scraping a 3-2 win against Austria and saving a point against the Irish last September spring immediately to mind. This chink in the armour might just give Chris Coleman and his dragons some optimism heading into tonight’s heavyweight clash.
It’s not all doom and gloom for Wales either. It would be disrespectful to forget the miracle Wales achieved last summer in the Euro’s, reaching the semi-finals with a squad tipped to falter at the group stages. Their passionate galvanised performances produced a campaign that will live forever in Welsh folklore, they probably already sing about it! With the result of this fixture being key to Welsh qualification, its hard to imagine a performance anything short of heroic again tonight. Chris Coleman will be well aware of his diminished options upfront and the severity of a defeat will be in the forefront of his mind – therefore a must not lose (at all costs!) is the type of performance we’re expecting from the Welsh tonight.
Without doubt, Wales love to be underestimated, written off with their back against the wall; it’s when they become most dangerous.
Round the Outside predict passion at Crvena Zvezda. We say lay Serbia at 1.75 – depending on the style of match look to trade out in-play.