Well well well, did everyone else cash in on the Welsh dragons avoid being put to the Serbian sword on Sunday evening!? We at Round the Outside did! Once again the stacked favourite’s odds came tumbling down leaving the thousands of ‘ACCA-LADS’ out of pocket and Round the Outside well-and-truly in pocket.
Despite not being an ESPN classic, the Welsh set their stall out early, dropping deep and closing off any space for the Serbians to manouvre in the final third. With laying odds snapped up at 1.75 pre-game and the welsh determined to stifle the game, time decay in this match was inevitable and Aaron Ramsey’s scuffed penalty provided not only hope for Coleman’s warriors but the perfect exit point for us.
Above you can see the price/volume chart outlining the Serbian odds once Ramsey’s confident mishit nestled in the net. Just like Shakira’s hips, your eyes don’t lie; Serbia’s odds rocketed to 6.0 and then stabilized around 4.75, locking in a healthy chunk of green. How easy was that!?
Now I know what you’re thinking; why get out then? Why not wait for the odds to continue to grow? Here at Round the Outside we don’t gamble with ego, we trade with our heads. We get our money in, take the profits when we’re right and get out before shit hits the proverbial fan. As soon as you start chasing profit and requiring further confirmation that you called it right, you step out of controlled sports betting and into the dreaded gambling zone. Wouldn’t you much prefer to sit back with locked in dollar and enjoy the rest of the match? Heck treat yourself; get a new handbag or something.
Anyway, as we hit the height of the football dry season the opportunities dry up for a taste of outsider value. Fortunately for you, we’ve done the all hard work and it’s next stop Russia. No, no don’t worry you don’t actually have to go there, you can put your Ushanka away for another year!
Check below to find our Round the Outsider from the first round of the most underwhelming international football tournament on the planet; the Confederations Cup.
Portugal v Mexico
Sunday 18th June 2017
This saucy Group A game sees the Uefa Champions Portugal take on the 2015 Concaf Gold Cup winners Mexico and it’s set to be fireworks. Both teams would quietly fancy their chances of qualifying from the group but an early favourites clash may leave the group wide open for the hosts Russia or NZ to wander into.
Portugal have been rampant since their famous extra time win against France in the final last July, losing only twice in their last nine games in all competitions. Not to mention a hat full of goals, the Portuguese, well Ronaldo, has unusually dominated the score-sheets, bagging 5 goals in Portugal’s consecutive 6-0 dismantling of the woeful Faroe Islands and Andorra. Sitting comfortably in second place in their World Cup qualification group, a cool 8 points ahead of third-placed Hungary, the Portuguese have been keenly placed as favourites. Sitting at 2.16 the market is giving Ronaldo and the other ten blokes a 46% of taking an early group lead. But where other’s see a gimme, Round the Outside see an opportunity!
Mexico are no pushovers themselves and the Fifa ranked 17th best team in the world will be looking to cause a bigger upset than a dodgy street-market quesadilla. Only losing two games in their previous thirty-six kick-abouts, the Mexicans may feel harshly underrated priced out at 3.85. But Juan Carlos Osorio has built a lean, tough to beat Mexican outfit with Javier Hernandez at the fore racking up his goal tally at every time of asking. The ex Man United striker is now Mexico’s all-time top goalscorer on 47 not out, and he’ll be determined to hit the half century before the tournament end.
Round the Outside predict Portuguese tears (ahem Cristiano). We say lay Portugal @ 2.22 – depending on the first half action look to trade out in-play.